National League*
St. Louis’s underwhelming 2006 regular season supports Billy Beane’s famous claim that division winners are determined by skill, but the playoffs are determined by luck. How else to explain the Cards turning 83 regular season wins into a World Series title over the surprising 95-win Detroit Tigers, whom USA Today predicted to win the Series in three games. The Red Birds swept the series, and restored some modicum of respect to the National League. The Senior Circuit has improved across the league, but expect a new representative in the 2007 Series.
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies – 93-69
The Philadelphia Phillies will be the class of the National League in 2007. The lineup rakes – Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins lead the best infield in the league – even better than the New York Mets’s Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Delgado. The Phils also have solid depth in the rotation, led by Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer. Despite a good closer in Tom Gordon, overall bullpen quality will be an issue, especially in the 7th and 8th innings. Philly phans will enjoy an exciting August and September, though, as Chase Utley leads his team to 93 wins and the best record in the National League.
Atlanta Braves – 90-72
I predict a bounce-back year for the team from the ATL. Andrew Jones, Tim Hudson and Jeff Francoeur will improve from last year’s showing, and lead the team to the National League Wild Card. The Braves boast a good enough rotation, led by John Smoltz, and the bullpen is vastly improved with the additions of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Kelly Johnson takes over for Brian Giles at 2B, and will provide the spark for a deep lineup followed by Edgar Renteria, Chipper Jones, Andrew “Contract Year” Jones, Brian McCann and Francoeur. Any production out of 1B and LF is just gravy.
New York Mets – 88-74
Expect a disappointing year from the Metropolitans, and blame it on the lack of pitching depth. Tom Glavine headlines a weak starting rotation that desperately misses Pedro Martinez. With a rotation combining two old starters, Glavine and El Duque, followed by two young arms in John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, and rounded out by Oliver “who stole my fastball, curveball and change-up” Perez, expect a weak bullpen to be taxed early and often by the bruising NL East lineups in Philly, Atlanta and even Florida. Pitchers lead teams to playoffs, and there’s nothing amazing about this bunch.
Florida Marlins – 81-81
I would take Florida's starters over New York’s in a heartbeat. Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco are a talented quartet. The lineup does not get as much credit as it deserves – Hanley Ramirez, Miguel “MVP” Cabrera, Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are solid, and Dan Uggla, despite a career 2006 and disappointing spring, will be fine. They contend for the Wild Card in 2008. But will the D-Train be a Fish?
Washington Nationals – 61-101
Only the Washington Nationals appear to be the NL team certain to win fewer than 70 games this season. The Nats will be lucky to win 60. Ryan Zimmerman is the star attraction, but the position players are inexperienced and the rotation is a disaster. Expect closer Chad Cordero to be dealt this summer – Dodger Blue?
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – 87-75
The Cubs will return to the postseason party this year and win a competitive, but overall under-whelming Central division by out-slugging their opponents. I am not a fan of the makeup of the team, however: weak defense at all OF positions, as well as at 3B and 2B; too many right-handed hitters; and question marks in the rotation (Jason Marquis and Wade Miller). Will Mark Prior prove himself in AAA and give the Cubbies a late summer boost a la Roger Clemens? The Cubs would be smart and deal Jacque Jones this spring and call up CF whiz kid Felix Pie – a gem defensively, he would balance the lineup with his combination of speed, power and baseball IQ – and Pie has won on every level. Love Cesar Izturis at SS and Derek Lee at 1B. This team will go as far as, gulp, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill can take them.
Milwaukee Brewers – 85-77
Ben Sheets is healthy this year. Really. The Brew Crew boast the best rotation in baseball when Sheets is healthy: Big Ben, Jeff “you can call me MVP” Suppan, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas. St. Louis misses already Suppan’s consistency; Capuano just wins, and Bush is receiving, deservedly, a ton of preseason kudos for his stellar fantasy stats. The lineup is solid 1 through 6, and expect Billy Hall’s decreased HR production to be offset by Prince Fielder’s increased production. If Prince can cut down on the K’s and learn to take a walk, he could be a top 5 MVP candidate. The bullpen is solid, and hopefully the Brewers will have the NL version of Francisco Cordero, and not the AL version of 2006.
St. Louis Cardinals – 78-84
The defending champs won only 83 regular season games last year, and had the benefit of Suppan, Jason Marquis and Jeff Weaver’s services in the rotation. Adam Wainwright will be a top 10 pitcher this year, and Anthony Reyes has potential. It is hard to bet against a team that has the best player (Albert Pujols) and the best pitcher (Chris Carpenter), but it is tough to repeat, and the Cards may be in store for a season asleep at the wheel.
Houston Astros – 73-89
Brad Lidge will be back in full force – 100+ K’s, 35 saves. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee headline a top-heavy lineup, and Craig Biggio will cross the 3000 hit milestone. But pitching after Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings are two dudes named Woody and Wandy, followed by Fernando Nieve. Roger Clemens may be back this June, but he takes his act to Boston or New York, and I think the Astros would be fine with that. They will be lucky to win 40% of their games.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 71-91
This team is improving. Their lineup will be interesting with CF Chris Duffy, SS Jack Wilson, batting champ 2B Freddy Sanchez (when healthy), LF Jason Bay, 1B Adam LaRoche, and RF Xavier Nady. The young left-handed rotation should get better. A fourth place finish ahead of the Astros is possible.
Cincinnati Reds – 69-93
The Reds start strong but will fade faster than Fergie. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo will keep them in a few games, but this young team takes a step back from last year’s 80-win season. Will Adam Dunn evolve from is feast-or-famine approach at the plate?
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers – 92-70
They have the best pitching in the division, and the best mix of exciting young talent and established veterans. Luis Gonzalez was a nice addition, and will provide solid leadership for the young core. No one works harder than Juan Pierre, and even though his signing raises questions due to its size and length, as well as blocking the path of some talented guys like Matt Kemp, he will be exciting to watch on the base paths with Rafael Furcal. Jason Schmidt wins 18 and leads the team to the playoffs.
San Diego Padres – 87-75
Too many question marks surround the everyday lineup to place this team any higher than second place in the division. Arizona is the fashionable pick; Colorado the sleeper, but the Pads are better than they have been given credit for. Greg Maddux and David Wells have a lot of mileage (especially Wells), but Jake Peavy and Chris Young are too good to let this team slip. Don’t bet against Maddux just yet– his teams make the postseason.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 85-77
Brandon Webb will not surprise anyone anymore – he can pitch. But can Randy Johnson still pitch? What about Livan Hernandez? Doug Davis? Micah “who?” Owings? Their talented young core of Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Carlos Quintin and Conor Jackson needs a year of seasoning. Expect a lot of high scoring games.
Colorado Rockies – 78-84
This team is getting better, and its talented offense will chew up visiting pitching staffs in Colorado. Matt Holliday is as good a hitter as anyone in the National League, and he is surrounded by a solid mix of speed, power, and OBP guys, including 3B Garrett Atkins, 1B Todd Helton and RF Brad Hawpe. Expect good years from CF Willy Taveras (Juan Pierre v.2.0?) and SS Troy Tulowitzki.
San Francisco Giants – 66-96
Not a pretty year for the city by the bay. At least they have the All Star game. Only 8 people in the world care about Barry Bonds’s home run chase, despite ESPN’s constant attempts to convince you otherwise. Barry Zito is a nice addition, and Matt Cain should be solid, but this team is worse than last year’s version. You had a nice run, Mr. Sabean, and this will be a tough way to go out. Their best hope is for Armando Benitez and Ray Durham to get off to a hot start and deal them for some young position player depth.
NL Division Series
Phillies v. Cubs
Dodgers v. Braves
NL Championship Series
Phillies v. Dodgers
NL Champion
Phillies
American League
How did the Detroit Tigers lose to St. Louis? The American League probably had the top 6 teams in baseball last year: Detroit, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Indians (yes, the Tribe, really). Only the New York Mets (with Pedro) could even be in the conversation. With the exception of Cleveland, each of these AL powers enters 2007 with serious questions. Minnesota is minus Brad Radke and Mr. Special Francisco Liriano; Chicago’s rotation is another year older and minus Freddy Garcia; Oakland gains (hopefully) a full season of Rich Harden but lost Barry Zito, Frank Thomas, and the Big Hurt’s rebar; New York traded Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield, and are counting on Chien-Ming Wang and Carl Pavano; Detroit’s lineup improves with Sheff’s bat and attitude, but will the rotation hold up after the big innings of 2006 (Chicago’s starters are still recovering from their deep run in 2005).
American League East
Boston Red Sox – 93-69
Like most of America, I’ve bought a ticket on the Boston bandwagon. They will score a ton of runs behind SS Julio Lugo, 1B Kevin Youklis, DH David Ortiz, LF Manny “Major Tom” Ramirez, and RF J.D. Drew. C Jason Varitek is showing his age, but the pitching should be solid. Jon Papelbon’s return to the closer role sets up the bullpen and cannot be over-appreciated. The story gaining all the headlines is SP Diasuke Matsuzaka – I expect him to pitch well, but he’s no Bob Gibson, either. Their starters are better than the Yankees, and that’s good enough for me.
New York Yankees – 90-72
Their lineup is legendary. Their rotation is not. SP Mike Mussina is their ace, and SP Andy Pettite returns for some feel good moments that should last through mid-May. But SP Wang will not come close to repeating his 19-win performance of 2006 (predict 13 wins), and SP Pavano will not finish the year with the team. SP Kei Igawa is the wild card, and his performance will determine whether or not SS Derek Jeter and SS-light Alex Rodriguez make the postseason. Don’t count on it. And start thinking about how Princess Alex looks in a San Francisco Giants uniform next year (if the Cubs were not up for sale this year, one could have expected to see him reunited with Sweet Lou Pinella).
Toronto Blue Jays – 87-75
This team is getting much better. SP Roy Halladay and SP A.J. Burnett are the best 1-2 starters in the division, and second only to SP Rich Harden and SP Danny Haren in the major league (until 2008, when SP Johan Santana and SP Francisco Liriano are together again). The lineup has depth, and some intriguing players in OF Alex Rios and OF Reed Johnson. The Big Hurt will continue his feast on weak AL pitching, and CF Vernon Wells will continue to dominate on the field and in the batter’s box. With a good bullpen (minus the talented RP Justin Speier), this team will contend through September.
Baltimore Orioles – 71-91
SS Miguel Tejada can only carry this team so far. SP Erik Bedard and SP Daniel Cabrera are solid, but the back-end of the rotation is anchored by SP Steve Traschel and SP Jaret Wright. Ugh. Baltimore will score its share of runs, but it will give up more than it gets, and that does not add up to many wins.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays – 69-93
This team will compete just by virtue of its superior athletes: LF Carl Crawford, CF Rocco Baldelli, OF Elijah Dukes, 1B Delmon Young and 2B B.J. Upton are bigger, stronger and faster than the big plodders like DH David Ortiz, 3B Troy Glaus and DH Jason Giambi. SP Scott Kazmir will win the Cy Young some day, but this team does not compete until it boosts revenue and develops a pitching staff. A move to Brooklyn would be a good first step.
American League Central
Cleveland Indians – 94-69
The best team in the best division, also the best team in the American League. Cleveland outscored its opponents in 2006, but still lost 84 games. Screwy year, and not likely to happen again. The Tribe boast the best lineup in baseball, led by CF Grady Sizemore and DH Travis Hafner. RF Trot Nixon will have a great year hitting in front of Pronk and providing veteran leadership. SP C.C. Sabathia had one of the most under-appreciated seasons last year, and the rest of the rotation is good enough. The bullpen is improved – but is RP Joe Borowski really a playoff caliber closer? Don’t be surprised if the Tribe make a deal for bullpen help this summer.
Minnesota Twins – 91-71
The Twins won 96 games and the AL Central last year, but only Detroit gets the love. The Piranhas set the table for all-world C Joe Mauer (baseball’s Tom Brady) and 1B Justin Morneau (last year’s MVP, not Big Papi or Jeter). SP Johan Santana continues his dominance, but will SP Carlos Silva and SP Sidney “Tijuana” Ponson give them enough at the back end? The Twins have the best bullpen in baseball – beyond any reasonable doubt – and play good, fundamental baseball. The White Sox, Yankees, and Angels do not: Minnesota wins the Wild Card.
Detroit Tigers – 88-74
I like the Sheffield trade – this team needs his right-handed power bat in the lineup almost as much as it needs his attitude in the clubhouse. I am a SP Jeremy Bonderman and SP Justin Verlander fan, but think SP Kenny Rogers will fall short of his solid 2006. C Pudge Rodriguez will continue his solid play, and 2B Placido Polanco just got another single.
Chicago White Sox – 85-77
Chicago fans will be wondering all summer who stole their starting pitching. SP Jose Contreras, SP Mark Buehrle and SP John Garland were terrific in 2005 – but have had mixed springs and makes me wonder whether the magic has passed. This team will score its share of runs, and there will be lot of fireworks this summer, just not a lot of wins.
Kansas City Royals – 73-89
The Royals are improving under their new general manager. SP Gil Meche provides stability at the front of the rotation, but the real story of the 2007 season will be the arrival of 3B Alex Gordon, as well as the continued development of RF Mark Teahan.
American League West
Oakland Athletics – 92-70
Barry who. SP Rich Harden returns and wins the AL Cy Young. SP’s Danny Haren, Esteban Loiza, and Joe “Blue Moon of Kentucky” Blanton give the A’s a chance to win with every start. This team will miss CF Mark Kotsay as he recovers from his back injury, but expect a big year from OF Milton Bradley. Are 3B Eric Chavez and SS Bobby Crosby healthy and ready to contribute .280 averages, and combined 50 HR’s and 200 RBI’s? If so, the A’s take the West.
Los Angeles Angels – 90-72
SP John Lackey headlines a great rotation, and SP Ervin Santana is ready to emerge as a star. RF Bad Vladimir Guerrero continues torturing opposing pitchers, but this team is counting on too many young bats to score runs. This team lacks the position depth to catch Oakland – but the race will be fun to watch.
Seattle Mariners – 79-83
This team is improving behind SP King Felix Hernandez. Yuniesky Betancourt is the best fielding SS in the majors, and 3B Adrian Beltre will win the Gold Glove this year over Eric Chavez. CF Ichiro Suzuki’s star keeps shining – will he be shining in Minnesota next year? The DH Jose Vidro and RP Rafael Soriano trades are head scratchers, though, and should portend a front office change in 2007. And 1B Richie Sexson just whiffed again.
Texas Rangers – 72-90
Texas made a smart move in hiring Ron Washington: expect good defense and a positive attitude. But even the best defense is limited in retrieving the long bombs launched in Arlington. SP Brandon McCarthy gets the chance to start, SP Kevin Millwood will battle to keep this team competitive, and 1B Mark Teixeira will bounce-back from a down 2006, but this team is still a few arms short.
AL Division Series
Indians v. Red Sox
A’s v. Twins
AL Championship Series
Indians v. A’s
AL Champion
A’s
World Series
Phillies v. A’s
Champion
Oakland Athletics
*Note: These predictions were made prior to opening day - I've just been delinquent in posting to the 'brain.
