Billy's Brain

Sense of Community: Two Worlds

2007-04-18T10:38:00.000-07:00

What's so special about the A's is their sense of community.

Whether letting it grow, shaving it off, rally caps sticking up, or Jason Kendall getting down, the A's exude community. It fairly drips off of them.

Swisher goes 0 for 4, with the 4 a K, and he can still smile in the outfield when a ball goes over his head to the fence. And Stewart can bump gloves with him to suggest the wind sucks and the effort was terrific.

Harden's shoulder is just about to come off, but he's there, with the team body and spirit, knowing, for sure, his days are numbered.

Kendall and Street can chuckle and exchange words after another Angel K's, and Piazza has slipped into the mix and has become one of the boys; try to find ways in which his Hall-of-Fame status has created rifts and you can't. With the beard, he looks like Swisher junior.

Scutaro, Ellis, Gaudin, and the rest. A team in every sense.

Now consider the Giants.

There's no "T" in Richie, Linden, Vizquel, Durham, and Klesko. They don't even know one another. And Bonds? He's always been the team breaker, so don't look left.

Is there any hope?

Only among the pitchers. If Lincicum is brought up (and isn't a jerk), maybe Zito, Cain, and Lincicum, all young guys, can come together and start something.

Short of this (or if Sabean trades one of them for another washed-out veteran), the team isn't.

Sabean in a Velvet Fog

2007-04-13T10:15:00.000-07:00

Smooth, urbane, cross between New York smart and Soprano tough guy, Brian Sabean sounds terrific on the radio. CBS may want to seek out the Giants' GM as replacement for Imus, and, for his part, Sabean should jump at the chance to work at something he can handle.

We're reminded (every day on the orange-and-black-licking KNBR) that Sabean brought the Giants winning ways for ever so many years. Nah, that's Balco, and the schtick is both over done and wrong.

On the field, amidst the old, the tired, the inept, and the first-base clogged bench, it's there for everyone to see: the team that Brian destroyed.

There is no offense in Mudville, and it's worse down on the farm.

Raise Cain, pay Zito, and pray for three other guys not to stink from the mound, but it makes NO DIFFERENCE; this team can't win, for now and for the foreseeable future.

Frandsen sent down, again. Four first baseman. Aurelia called "Richie." Pedro Feliz, turning 40 and still looking for a strike. Todd Linden. And Barry.

What happened to this year's pot of money that would help rebuild the team? Squandered.

Has anything happened in the past decade to strengthen this team's farm system. No.

Brian, take the Imus job if offered. Let CBS figure out how to market another fraud.

MLB 2007 Predictions for billysbrain.com

2007-04-08T21:26:00.000-07:00

National League*

St. Louis’s underwhelming 2006 regular season supports Billy Beane’s famous claim that division winners are determined by skill, but the playoffs are determined by luck. How else to explain the Cards turning 83 regular season wins into a World Series title over the surprising 95-win Detroit Tigers, whom USA Today predicted to win the Series in three games. The Red Birds swept the series, and restored some modicum of respect to the National League. The Senior Circuit has improved across the league, but expect a new representative in the 2007 Series.

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies – 93-69
The Philadelphia Phillies will be the class of the National League in 2007. The lineup rakes – Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins lead the best infield in the league – even better than the New York Mets’s Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Delgado. The Phils also have solid depth in the rotation, led by Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer. Despite a good closer in Tom Gordon, overall bullpen quality will be an issue, especially in the 7th and 8th innings. Philly phans will enjoy an exciting August and September, though, as Chase Utley leads his team to 93 wins and the best record in the National League.

Atlanta Braves – 90-72
I predict a bounce-back year for the team from the ATL. Andrew Jones, Tim Hudson and Jeff Francoeur will improve from last year’s showing, and lead the team to the National League Wild Card. The Braves boast a good enough rotation, led by John Smoltz, and the bullpen is vastly improved with the additions of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Kelly Johnson takes over for Brian Giles at 2B, and will provide the spark for a deep lineup followed by Edgar Renteria, Chipper Jones, Andrew “Contract Year” Jones, Brian McCann and Francoeur. Any production out of 1B and LF is just gravy.

New York Mets – 88-74
Expect a disappointing year from the Metropolitans, and blame it on the lack of pitching depth. Tom Glavine headlines a weak starting rotation that desperately misses Pedro Martinez. With a rotation combining two old starters, Glavine and El Duque, followed by two young arms in John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, and rounded out by Oliver “who stole my fastball, curveball and change-up” Perez, expect a weak bullpen to be taxed early and often by the bruising NL East lineups in Philly, Atlanta and even Florida. Pitchers lead teams to playoffs, and there’s nothing amazing about this bunch.

Florida Marlins – 81-81
I would take Florida's starters over New York’s in a heartbeat. Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco are a talented quartet. The lineup does not get as much credit as it deserves – Hanley Ramirez, Miguel “MVP” Cabrera, Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are solid, and Dan Uggla, despite a career 2006 and disappointing spring, will be fine. They contend for the Wild Card in 2008. But will the D-Train be a Fish?

Washington Nationals – 61-101
Only the Washington Nationals appear to be the NL team certain to win fewer than 70 games this season. The Nats will be lucky to win 60. Ryan Zimmerman is the star attraction, but the position players are inexperienced and the rotation is a disaster. Expect closer Chad Cordero to be dealt this summer – Dodger Blue?

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – 87-75
The Cubs will return to the postseason party this year and win a competitive, but overall under-whelming Central division by out-slugging their opponents. I am not a fan of the makeup of the team, however: weak defense at all OF positions, as well as at 3B and 2B; too many right-handed hitters; and question marks in the rotation (Jason Marquis and Wade Miller). Will Mark Prior prove himself in AAA and give the Cubbies a late summer boost a la Roger Clemens? The Cubs would be smart and deal Jacque Jones this spring and call up CF whiz kid Felix Pie – a gem defensively, he would balance the lineup with his combination of speed, power and baseball IQ – and Pie has won on every level. Love Cesar Izturis at SS and Derek Lee at 1B. This team will go as far as, gulp, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill can take them.

Milwaukee Brewers – 85-77
Ben Sheets is healthy this year. Really. The Brew Crew boast the best rotation in baseball when Sheets is healthy: Big Ben, Jeff “you can call me MVP” Suppan, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas. St. Louis misses already Suppan’s consistency; Capuano just wins, and Bush is receiving, deservedly, a ton of preseason kudos for his stellar fantasy stats. The lineup is solid 1 through 6, and expect Billy Hall’s decreased HR production to be offset by Prince Fielder’s increased production. If Prince can cut down on the K’s and learn to take a walk, he could be a top 5 MVP candidate. The bullpen is solid, and hopefully the Brewers will have the NL version of Francisco Cordero, and not the AL version of 2006.

St. Louis Cardinals – 78-84
The defending champs won only 83 regular season games last year, and had the benefit of Suppan, Jason Marquis and Jeff Weaver’s services in the rotation. Adam Wainwright will be a top 10 pitcher this year, and Anthony Reyes has potential. It is hard to bet against a team that has the best player (Albert Pujols) and the best pitcher (Chris Carpenter), but it is tough to repeat, and the Cards may be in store for a season asleep at the wheel.

Houston Astros – 73-89
Brad Lidge will be back in full force – 100+ K’s, 35 saves. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee headline a top-heavy lineup, and Craig Biggio will cross the 3000 hit milestone. But pitching after Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings are two dudes named Woody and Wandy, followed by Fernando Nieve. Roger Clemens may be back this June, but he takes his act to Boston or New York, and I think the Astros would be fine with that. They will be lucky to win 40% of their games.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 71-91
This team is improving. Their lineup will be interesting with CF Chris Duffy, SS Jack Wilson, batting champ 2B Freddy Sanchez (when healthy), LF Jason Bay, 1B Adam LaRoche, and RF Xavier Nady. The young left-handed rotation should get better. A fourth place finish ahead of the Astros is possible.

Cincinnati Reds – 69-93
The Reds start strong but will fade faster than Fergie. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo will keep them in a few games, but this young team takes a step back from last year’s 80-win season. Will Adam Dunn evolve from is feast-or-famine approach at the plate?

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92-70
They have the best pitching in the division, and the best mix of exciting young talent and established veterans. Luis Gonzalez was a nice addition, and will provide solid leadership for the young core. No one works harder than Juan Pierre, and even though his signing raises questions due to its size and length, as well as blocking the path of some talented guys like Matt Kemp, he will be exciting to watch on the base paths with Rafael Furcal. Jason Schmidt wins 18 and leads the team to the playoffs.

San Diego Padres – 87-75
Too many question marks surround the everyday lineup to place this team any higher than second place in the division. Arizona is the fashionable pick; Colorado the sleeper, but the Pads are better than they have been given credit for. Greg Maddux and David Wells have a lot of mileage (especially Wells), but Jake Peavy and Chris Young are too good to let this team slip. Don’t bet against Maddux just yet– his teams make the postseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 85-77
Brandon Webb will not surprise anyone anymore – he can pitch. But can Randy Johnson still pitch? What about Livan Hernandez? Doug Davis? Micah “who?” Owings? Their talented young core of Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Carlos Quintin and Conor Jackson needs a year of seasoning. Expect a lot of high scoring games.

Colorado Rockies – 78-84
This team is getting better, and its talented offense will chew up visiting pitching staffs in Colorado. Matt Holliday is as good a hitter as anyone in the National League, and he is surrounded by a solid mix of speed, power, and OBP guys, including 3B Garrett Atkins, 1B Todd Helton and RF Brad Hawpe. Expect good years from CF Willy Taveras (Juan Pierre v.2.0?) and SS Troy Tulowitzki.

San Francisco Giants – 66-96
Not a pretty year for the city by the bay. At least they have the All Star game. Only 8 people in the world care about Barry Bonds’s home run chase, despite ESPN’s constant attempts to convince you otherwise. Barry Zito is a nice addition, and Matt Cain should be solid, but this team is worse than last year’s version. You had a nice run, Mr. Sabean, and this will be a tough way to go out. Their best hope is for Armando Benitez and Ray Durham to get off to a hot start and deal them for some young position player depth.

NL Division Series
Phillies v. Cubs
Dodgers v. Braves

NL Championship Series
Phillies v. Dodgers

NL Champion
Phillies

American League

How did the Detroit Tigers lose to St. Louis? The American League probably had the top 6 teams in baseball last year: Detroit, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Indians (yes, the Tribe, really). Only the New York Mets (with Pedro) could even be in the conversation. With the exception of Cleveland, each of these AL powers enters 2007 with serious questions. Minnesota is minus Brad Radke and Mr. Special Francisco Liriano; Chicago’s rotation is another year older and minus Freddy Garcia; Oakland gains (hopefully) a full season of Rich Harden but lost Barry Zito, Frank Thomas, and the Big Hurt’s rebar; New York traded Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield, and are counting on Chien-Ming Wang and Carl Pavano; Detroit’s lineup improves with Sheff’s bat and attitude, but will the rotation hold up after the big innings of 2006 (Chicago’s starters are still recovering from their deep run in 2005).

American League East

Boston Red Sox – 93-69
Like most of America, I’ve bought a ticket on the Boston bandwagon. They will score a ton of runs behind SS Julio Lugo, 1B Kevin Youklis, DH David Ortiz, LF Manny “Major Tom” Ramirez, and RF J.D. Drew. C Jason Varitek is showing his age, but the pitching should be solid. Jon Papelbon’s return to the closer role sets up the bullpen and cannot be over-appreciated. The story gaining all the headlines is SP Diasuke Matsuzaka – I expect him to pitch well, but he’s no Bob Gibson, either. Their starters are better than the Yankees, and that’s good enough for me.

New York Yankees – 90-72
Their lineup is legendary. Their rotation is not. SP Mike Mussina is their ace, and SP Andy Pettite returns for some feel good moments that should last through mid-May. But SP Wang will not come close to repeating his 19-win performance of 2006 (predict 13 wins), and SP Pavano will not finish the year with the team. SP Kei Igawa is the wild card, and his performance will determine whether or not SS Derek Jeter and SS-light Alex Rodriguez make the postseason. Don’t count on it. And start thinking about how Princess Alex looks in a San Francisco Giants uniform next year (if the Cubs were not up for sale this year, one could have expected to see him reunited with Sweet Lou Pinella).

Toronto Blue Jays – 87-75
This team is getting much better. SP Roy Halladay and SP A.J. Burnett are the best 1-2 starters in the division, and second only to SP Rich Harden and SP Danny Haren in the major league (until 2008, when SP Johan Santana and SP Francisco Liriano are together again). The lineup has depth, and some intriguing players in OF Alex Rios and OF Reed Johnson. The Big Hurt will continue his feast on weak AL pitching, and CF Vernon Wells will continue to dominate on the field and in the batter’s box. With a good bullpen (minus the talented RP Justin Speier), this team will contend through September.

Baltimore Orioles – 71-91
SS Miguel Tejada can only carry this team so far. SP Erik Bedard and SP Daniel Cabrera are solid, but the back-end of the rotation is anchored by SP Steve Traschel and SP Jaret Wright. Ugh. Baltimore will score its share of runs, but it will give up more than it gets, and that does not add up to many wins.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – 69-93
This team will compete just by virtue of its superior athletes: LF Carl Crawford, CF Rocco Baldelli, OF Elijah Dukes, 1B Delmon Young and 2B B.J. Upton are bigger, stronger and faster than the big plodders like DH David Ortiz, 3B Troy Glaus and DH Jason Giambi. SP Scott Kazmir will win the Cy Young some day, but this team does not compete until it boosts revenue and develops a pitching staff. A move to Brooklyn would be a good first step.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians – 94-69
The best team in the best division, also the best team in the American League. Cleveland outscored its opponents in 2006, but still lost 84 games. Screwy year, and not likely to happen again. The Tribe boast the best lineup in baseball, led by CF Grady Sizemore and DH Travis Hafner. RF Trot Nixon will have a great year hitting in front of Pronk and providing veteran leadership. SP C.C. Sabathia had one of the most under-appreciated seasons last year, and the rest of the rotation is good enough. The bullpen is improved – but is RP Joe Borowski really a playoff caliber closer? Don’t be surprised if the Tribe make a deal for bullpen help this summer.

Minnesota Twins – 91-71
The Twins won 96 games and the AL Central last year, but only Detroit gets the love. The Piranhas set the table for all-world C Joe Mauer (baseball’s Tom Brady) and 1B Justin Morneau (last year’s MVP, not Big Papi or Jeter). SP Johan Santana continues his dominance, but will SP Carlos Silva and SP Sidney “Tijuana” Ponson give them enough at the back end? The Twins have the best bullpen in baseball – beyond any reasonable doubt – and play good, fundamental baseball. The White Sox, Yankees, and Angels do not: Minnesota wins the Wild Card.

Detroit Tigers – 88-74
I like the Sheffield trade – this team needs his right-handed power bat in the lineup almost as much as it needs his attitude in the clubhouse. I am a SP Jeremy Bonderman and SP Justin Verlander fan, but think SP Kenny Rogers will fall short of his solid 2006. C Pudge Rodriguez will continue his solid play, and 2B Placido Polanco just got another single.

Chicago White Sox – 85-77
Chicago fans will be wondering all summer who stole their starting pitching. SP Jose Contreras, SP Mark Buehrle and SP John Garland were terrific in 2005 – but have had mixed springs and makes me wonder whether the magic has passed. This team will score its share of runs, and there will be lot of fireworks this summer, just not a lot of wins.

Kansas City Royals – 73-89
The Royals are improving under their new general manager. SP Gil Meche provides stability at the front of the rotation, but the real story of the 2007 season will be the arrival of 3B Alex Gordon, as well as the continued development of RF Mark Teahan.

American League West

Oakland Athletics – 92-70
Barry who. SP Rich Harden returns and wins the AL Cy Young. SP’s Danny Haren, Esteban Loiza, and Joe “Blue Moon of Kentucky” Blanton give the A’s a chance to win with every start. This team will miss CF Mark Kotsay as he recovers from his back injury, but expect a big year from OF Milton Bradley. Are 3B Eric Chavez and SS Bobby Crosby healthy and ready to contribute .280 averages, and combined 50 HR’s and 200 RBI’s? If so, the A’s take the West.

Los Angeles Angels – 90-72
SP John Lackey headlines a great rotation, and SP Ervin Santana is ready to emerge as a star. RF Bad Vladimir Guerrero continues torturing opposing pitchers, but this team is counting on too many young bats to score runs. This team lacks the position depth to catch Oakland – but the race will be fun to watch.

Seattle Mariners – 79-83
This team is improving behind SP King Felix Hernandez. Yuniesky Betancourt is the best fielding SS in the majors, and 3B Adrian Beltre will win the Gold Glove this year over Eric Chavez. CF Ichiro Suzuki’s star keeps shining – will he be shining in Minnesota next year? The DH Jose Vidro and RP Rafael Soriano trades are head scratchers, though, and should portend a front office change in 2007. And 1B Richie Sexson just whiffed again.

Texas Rangers – 72-90
Texas made a smart move in hiring Ron Washington: expect good defense and a positive attitude. But even the best defense is limited in retrieving the long bombs launched in Arlington. SP Brandon McCarthy gets the chance to start, SP Kevin Millwood will battle to keep this team competitive, and 1B Mark Teixeira will bounce-back from a down 2006, but this team is still a few arms short.

AL Division Series
Indians v. Red Sox
A’s v. Twins

AL Championship Series
Indians v. A’s

AL Champion
A’s

World Series
Phillies v. A’s

Champion
Oakland Athletics

*Note: These predictions were made prior to opening day - I've just been delinquent in posting to the 'brain.

Giants Need to Use (Their) Beane

2007-03-20T17:55:00.000-07:00

OK, no closer to a decent closer.

No outfield or first base slugger.

Limited bullpen support (of dubious quality).

Durham and Feliz depending on Vizquel to move Roberts over.

So, fire Sabean and hire Beane.

No, don't ask Billy to leave the A's.

Let him manage both the A's and the Giants.

Give him ownership interests in both clubs.

It's perfect and a suitable challenge for the best baseball brain in the country.

So, Z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-ito

2006-12-29T09:53:00.000-08:00

Sabean couldn't sign Suppan, so he and Magowan have cooked up a major PR move, which helps the club much more than Suppan ever could.

The problem is, no hitting, and a consistent reluctance to let the "younger" guys have any chance to show anything.

Admittedly, waiting around and making weak offers, ineptly, has left the Giants with nothing more in free agency.

A trade isn't possible, as the Giants have little, except Noah Lowry.

Hmmmmm. Noah?

Yahoo, The Great Klesko at AT&T

2006-12-19T17:30:00.000-08:00

One down and at least one to go. Will the Gigantes sign Suppan this week? Will they pass, take deep breaths to calm down from placing second in the bidding (again), and get serious with Tomo Ohka?
Say you heard it here first:

If Suppan signs elsewhere, the Giants re-sign Jamey Wright.

Go Bri Go.

OK, So Zito's Not a Dodger

2006-12-19T09:20:00.000-08:00

Righty rightly brings us back to a certain dimension of reality, but it's baseball after all, so logic and common sense need not apply.

In any case, Barry Zito goes to New York, after New York comes to Barry Zito today, tomorrow, and yesterday.

The Giants?

Get moving now to sign Jeff Suppan. He's terrible, but he's rated the Number 2 free agent starter in some circles (I just think he's Number 2, period).

Better Suppan, maybe, than Tomo Ohka, but whatever Brian wants...

And where's Ryan? Some bat, no glove, but "he always has played hard for Bochy." Sign the guy, Brian, don't keep fans hoping for Aubrey Huff.

Finally, let's get creative about some "experience" in the outfield. Bonds needs a mature guy to hold his position when the BarcaLounger beckons, and Dave Roberts will need at least a day a week to soak his sore knees. (And, Randy Winn can't play two positions at one time, although that'd be very cost effective and no different from having Bonds in left when Winn subs for Roberts in center.)

So, Righty has mentioned the name Preston Wilson to me privately. Yea, he's old enough and just sort of rickety enough to be a Giant. But wait. There are two even better Sabean guys just waiting for a call.

Jeromy Burnitz and Michael Tucker.

No, don't laugh.

Burnitz has name recognition in San Francisco; some of the old sourdoughs remember when he played for Colorado and was good, and most of the yuppies aren't old enough to remember him at all.

Tucker is a bargain. He's also terrible at the plate and questionable in the field, but he's part of Giants almost-recent history. Oh, by bargain I mean he'll be really really cheap. Imagine that: a professional baseball player, with experience, a record of mixed to very poor performance, who's really really cheap.

Alright Brian, just go sign Tucker for insurance, but please, sign Suppan and Klesko now...

Let's Get Real

2006-12-15T17:02:00.000-08:00

What are you two babbling about? We need to stop with this fantasy/primitive analysis, and look at these issues in a more intelligent and reaslistic way. First of all, the Dodgers don't have the need or the financial resources in order to sign Zito or Wells. First of all, the Dodgers, like he A's, have an outstanding farmr system as well as alot of young big league talent. They have already have $39 million dollars invested in Furcal, $36 million dollars in D. Lowe, $45 million dollars in Pierre, $47 million in Schmidt, and many other players. So c'mon, let's get real. The Dodgers are fine right now, in fact, they are probably better than fine. As of right now, I would put the Dodgers at number two in the National League power rankings, behind only the NY Mets.

Projected Lineup for LA Dodgers

1. Juan Pierre CF
2. Rafael Furcal SS
3. Nomar Garciaparra 1B
4. Jeff Kent 2B
5. Andre Ethier RF
6. Luis Gonzalez LF
7. Wilson Betemit 3B
8. Russell Martin C

That's a very, very strong lineup! And don't forget the guys they still have on their bench: youngsters Matt Kemp and James Loney, veterans Mke Lieberthal and Marlon Anderson, and reliable extras Olmedo Saenz, Ramon Martinez, and Jason Repko.

Projected Rotation

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Derek Lowe
3. Brad Penny
4. Randy Wolf
5. Chad Billingsley

This rotation is one of the best, if not the best, in the National League, and their bullpen is also one of the deepest and most reliable in baseball.

So before we just start rolling names of guys the Dodgers could get, we need to look closely at their current roster and then determine if the move really makes sense.

Dodgers' Unfinished Business

2006-12-15T10:08:00.000-08:00

Two moves define the Los Angeles Dodgers' offseason thus far: (1) the signing of Jason Schmidt; and (2) the departure of J.D. Drew for Boston.

Schmidt gives them an ace. Injuries and age may have decreased his overall effectiveness, but he is an upgrade over Lowe, Penny and Kuo. Hand him the ball on opening day, and he will give the Blues a chance to win. His signing also frees up Coletti to be a seller in trading one of his starters, in a market thin on pitchers, as well as give him the flexibility of working in some of his young, talented pitchers into the rotation.

The Dodgers will in the long run add by Drew's self-subtraction. And the ultimate substitute could be Toronto's Vernon Wells.

Toronto made Wells a good faith contract offer this week of $126 million for 7 years, but Wells knows he can get much more if he plays the year out and hits the free agent market next year as the marquee player. If Carlos Lee can sign for $100 million, and Alphonso Soriono for $136 million, Wells can reasonably expect an 8 year, $150 million dollar deal from someone.

The Dodgers have the talent, and the crank, to make it happen. But is the right-handed hitting center fielder worth it?

Coletti could package a trade around Penny, Andre Ethier (a lefty, not a Dodger draftee), and some combination of Chad Billingsley, Scott Elbert, and Joel Guzman.

Billingsley is considered the high-ceiling guy. He probably starts the year in AAA, but is being groomed for a rotation spot, likely Brad Penny's after this year. Guzman, a SS/3B prospect, is blocked for the next two years by Rafael Furcal. Andy LaRoche will also compete with him for the starting 3B job currently held by Wilson Betamit. Many expect LaRoche to move to a corner OF spot, likely for the 2008 season after the Luis Gonzalez experiment. Elbert a young lefthanded pitcher - and who doesn't like these?

Here is a lineup resemble with Wells:

1. Furcal SS (s)
2. Pierre LF (l)
3. Wells CF (r)
4. Kent 2B (r)
5. Garciaparra 1B (r)
6. Gonzalez RF (l)
7. Betemit 3B (s)
8. Martin C (r)

Not too shabby - but you can see right away the absence of any left handed bats to protect Wells, Kent and Garciaparra.

The rotation would be:

1. Schmidt (r)
2. Lowe (r)
3. Wolf (l)
4. Kuo (l)
5. major question mark

Rather than commit to Wells for 8 years, I would still deal Penny, but deal for prospects, not Wells, and go out and sign Barry Zito, 5 years, $90 million. Keep Billingsley, for the purpose of taking over Wolf's spot in the roster in 2008, and hang on to Ethier to see whether he can be an every day player in 2008 and benefit from the tutoring of Gonzalez.

Wells also blocks the path of Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche and keeps at bats away from first bast prospect James Loney.

The rotation would instead be:

1. Barry Zito (l)
2. Jason Schmidt (r)
3. Derek Lowe (r)
4. Randy Wolf (l)
5. Hong-Chi Kuo (l)

One could argue flipping Zito and Schmidt to rebalance the lefty-righty rotation.

Zito over Wells makes a lot more sense. But will Coletti be content to build from within or will his training under Brian Sabean in San Francisco get the better angel of his nature?

Too early to say if Giants will contend...

2006-12-13T17:20:00.000-08:00

Under a picture of the new/old Three Amigos (Molina, Roberts, Aurelia), the San Francisco Chronicle reports that GM Brian Sabean isn't willing at the moment to pronounce the Giants a contender in the West (December 15th, "Magowan admits questions remain"). Big of him, but out of character, as smarmy confidence has always been his trademark.

As Magowan admits and common sense dictates, the Giants have holes, beyond those in Sabean's head.

Pitching

Will Sabean really make a play for and sign Barry Zito, the A's excellent lefty workhorse and fashion plate? Don't bet on it, for at least three reasons:

First, Zito wants to win, and the Giants won't.

Second, Zito wants celebrity, and San Francisco is a backwater, pretty park and all.

Third, Zito and Boras are smart and know what a top-line pitcher is worth this year.

Instead, to fill the major hole in the projected rotation (for talent, experience, proven ability) they'll go for Jeff Suppan, formerly of the Cards, and this won't be nearly enough to give the bullpen any rest.

Morris is Suppan already, Matt Cain may well have a second-year slump, and Jonathan Sanchez is unproven. In fact, Noah Lowry is likely to star in 2007, which is one more reason smarties Zito and Boras won't ever come to SF. Who needs any competion for "favorite lefty."

Speaking of the bullpen, are we excited about a rested Armando Benitez? What about the re-signing of Tyler Walker? Steve Kline may be the best reliever available come April, but hey, he's a lefty too.

Hitting

What's the lineup? Roberts, Vizquel, Durham, Bonds, and five other guys.

Roberts? Will he hit better than .260? OK, say he gets on and Vizquel helps to get him to second (e.g., a bunt not beaten out).

Which Durham will show up, or will he be injured anyway. OK, say a fly ball gets Roberts to third with two out.

Does Bonds play today? Say he walks--good for him good for them. Now what?

Well, my guess is the Giants overpay for Ryan Klesko and send him up at this point to make the third out. Sadly, he'll do his job like the pro he is.

Dusty Baker's Dozen v.1

2006-06-02T21:55:00.000-07:00

A dusty baker's dozen questions to consider as the baseball calendar turns to June:

1. King Albert will collect 150 RBIs and lead the Red Birds to the World Series.

2. Detroit Tigers starting pitching falls apart and the team scrapes to an 82 win season and fourth place finish in the AL Central.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks deal for a starting pitcher and win the NL West by over 10 games.

4. New York Yankees starting OF is worse than the Kansas City Royals OF, and will not improve over the season.

5. Roger Clemens wins 10 games this year and inspires the 'Stos to the NL Wild Card.

6. The Texas Rangers are contenders.

7. Dontrelle Willis finishes the season in a Marlins uniform.

8. Joe Mauer wins the AL MVP.

9. Ryan Howard finished second in the NL behind King Albert in HRs, RBIs, and OPS.

10. Barry Zito pitches Game 1 of the first round of the AL Division Series for the Oakland A's.

11. The Chicago Cubs fire Dusty Baker by August 1.

12. Toronto Blue Jays catch Boston for the AL East crown.

13. The NL West is as good as its collective record through May 31.

My answers:

1. True - Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and in the process of another monster season. He finishes with 66 home runs and 162 RBIs.

2. False - Yes, Maroth is undergoing elbow surgery, but this team has grit. I doubt they hang with the White Sox, and Cleveland is playing better ball of late, but this team will finish with at least 82 wins, just not a division title.

3. True - The Snakes are making a charge behind Brandon Webb, who should be considered the front-runner for the Cy Young. They need to add another starter, and will do so sooner rather than later. My prediction for starter - not Zito or D-Train, but Kerry Wood.

4. True - Matsui is out for the season, and now it looks like Sheffield is as well. Yanks overpaid for Damon and charitably resigned Bernie Williams, who is only an adequate DH at this point. Expect them to look to trade - Austin Kearns, Juan Pierre, Shannon Stewart, Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez, Richie Sexson should be available and would help.

5. False - the NL is weak, but the WBC previewed Clemens' lack of stamina, power fastball, and commitment to win.

6. False - see 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. This team is a couple starting pitchers away from contending, and the bullpen is still a mess.

7. True - despite the rumors that the Fish are shopping Willis, he and Cabrera are their only 2 marketable stars, both are still young, and each under contract through at least 2008. Both stay in south Florida.

8. True - Sweet Joe and the Minnesota brass are proving the critics wrong for selecting Mauer over Mark Prior.

9. True - Howard is mashing, the Philly lineup is stacked, and they play in a little league stadium.

10. True - Zito stays with Oak-town, even though this is a great summer to trade starting pitching - big market teams and big spending owners are looking for pitching, including the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And don't count out the ugly step-children who finally get the taste of contending, and may be willing to overspend, like the Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, and Philadelphia Phillies. And never count out the Yankees,especially if Zito were being shopped.

11. True (regrettably) - the Cubs stink because they lack talent, not good coaching. The D-Lee, Prior and Wood injuries hurt, but the Jacques Jones signing, Juan Pierre and Corey Patterson trades hurt even more. A starting outfield of Murton-Pie-Patterson would be an immediate upgrade over the current one. Dusty deserves better, and hopefully he'll get better treatment in his next gig with the San Francisco Giants in 2008 (the dispute with ownership will be water under the Bay Bridge, and as much as Rags would like the opportunity to manage, the franchise will welcome its old skip with open arms and Rags will dutifully serve at his side).

12. False - Boston's pitching has been better than expected, especially Schilling, Beckett, and the young closer Papelbon. This team will go the distance but still get smoked in the playoffs to the wild card Indians.

13. False - the West is the only division in baseball with all teams above .500. Only 2 teams will finish with winning records - Arizona and Los Angeles. The Dodgers have been a pleasant surprise behind Brad Penny, Nomar Garciaparra, and Andre Ethier. Gagne returns, but Kent goes on the DL - perhaps an opportunity for Izturis (a gold glove caliber SS)? Padres, Giants, and Rockies fade, despite our Rocky Mountain god on high.

Whispers

2006-06-01T12:08:00.000-07:00

Three-team deal in July:

Alay Soler, Lastings Milledge, and a player to be named to Florida

Dontrelle Willis and Franklyn German to Oakland

Barry Zito to New York

Bonds, Berkman Out of Team USA

2006-01-24T10:49:00.000-08:00

Team USA lost two of its top thumpers, as Barry Bonds and Lance Berkman announced they were withdrawing from consideration.

Bonds, who would have hit cleanup and played DH, said his heart and his body were left in San Francisco. Berkman, on the other hand, is having knee surgery and won't start playing until late spring. The loss of both players is a blow to Team USA's outfield, already the weakest link of the team. It is also a blow to the depth of left-handed hitters, with Berkman a switch hitter and Bonds the best left-handed hitter on the planet.

I had pencilled both Bonds and Berkman in the starting lineup. It is unlikely Team USA will replace them with two additional outfielders. Rather, I expect Chipper Jones, would be splitting 3B/OF duties will now be a near-full time outfielder and designated hitter.

Michael Young deserves one of the roster spots. The Team's other weakness besides outfield defense is depth at second base, with only Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins (a SS by trade), at the position. Young has played 2B before, and his ability to play solid SS and 2B defense will greatly benefit the Team.

Tough call on the last roster spot. It has to be another outfielder, and should be a left handed hitter. That could rule out Jeff Francoeur and Matt Holliday.

But the left-handed options are hardly desireable. Luis Gonzalez is one option, but is anyone really excited about Gonzalez in LF and Ken Griffey Jr. in CF? Yikes. Randy Winn, a switch hitter, is also on the provisional roster - but his defense is below average and his offense is hardly Berkmanesque.

My nod goes to Jeff Francoeur. He is the only dedicated RF on the provisional roster. Holliday is by far a more disciplined hitter, but Francoeur is a rising star, an exciting talent who will bring some enthusiasm to an pretty old and stodgy Team USA.

Team USA mock lineup v.3:

1. Johnny Damon (L) CF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez (R) 3B
4. Mark Teixeira (S) DH
5. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
6. Chipper Jones (S) RF
7. Jason Varitek (S) C
8. Carl Crawford (L) LF
9. Chase Utley (S) 2B

Princess Rodriguez Consents

2006-01-18T10:10:00.000-08:00

New York Yankee Alex Rodriguez surprised many by agreeing in the 11th hour to participate in the World Baseball Classic. He also agreed to play for his native United States, rather than his parents' Dominican Republic. Why Alexander Emmanuel ever made this an issue, I'll never know. But he committed, and know that he will be the starting third baseman for Team USA.

Also noteworthy was the addition of the best third baseman in baseball, Eric Chavez. Unfortunately he will be stuck behind Hamlet at third. His addition likely drops Chipper Jones from serious consideration at the hot corner, but perhaps his veteran leadership would be appreciated in the outfield.

Here's my revised mock lineup, v.2:

1. Johnny Damon (L) CF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez (R) 3B
4. Barry Bonds (L) DH
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
6. Lance Berkman (L) RF
7. Jason Varitek (S) C
8. Carl Crawford (L) LF
9. Chase Utley (S) 2B

Add Eric Chavez to the team. and drop Michael Young. Team USA will go with Jimmy Rollins' speed off the bench in favor of Young's overall quality game.

Team USA mock lineup

2006-01-17T16:06:00.000-08:00

Team USA announced its 60 man provisional roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Notable headliners include Roger Clemens, Derek Jeter, and Barry Bonds. The real strength of the roster, though, will be the bullpen, where Brad Lidge will set up Billy Wagner.

Here's a mock lineup using the provisional roster:

1. Johnny Damon (L) CF
2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
4. Barry Bonds (L) DH
5. Lance Berkman (L) RF
6. Chipper Jones (S) 3B
7. Jason Varitek (S) C
8. Carl Crawford (L) LF
9. Chase Utley (S) 2B

Bench

10. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
11. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
12. Michael Young (R) SS
13. Ken Griffey, Jr. (L) CF
14. Vernon Wells (R) CF
15. Joe Mauer (L) C
16. Chad Moeller (R) C

Starting Rotation

1. Roger Clemens (R)
2. Dontrelle Willis (L)
3. Roy Halladay (R)
4. C.C. Sabathia (L)

Bullpen

CL Billy Wagner (L)
SU Brad Lidge (R)
SU Joe Nathan (R)
MR Brian Fuentes (L)
MR Chad Cordero (R)
MR Huston Street (R)
MR Scot Shields (R)
LR Andy Pettitte (L)
LR Jake Peavy (R)
LR Tim Hudson (R)

Teams are allowed rosters up to 30 players, with a minimum of 3 catchers and 13 pitchers. Above, I've identified 16 position players, and 14 pitchers. I doubt Team USA will carry more than 14 pitchers, though, due to the diminished need for more that 5-6 starters, as well as the requirement for at least 3 catchers.

Last player is Michael Young, beating out David Wright. While Team USA could use another third baseman, expect Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young, and Chase Utley to play 2B, 3B, and SS.

Tough call on Teixeira over Derrek Lee as the starting first baseman. Lee is the better defender, and I expect Lee to see the majority of at-bats against lefthanders.

Chad Moeller gets in as the third catcher and primary bullpen guy due to the strength of his catching and defense. Joe Mauer should split time with Varitek behind the plate, but similar to Olympic hockey, expect the team to chose the hot receiver for the championship rounds.

Barry Bonds is the DH. Don't think he agreed to participate if he would be sitting on the bench. Whoever hits in front of Bonds will have a monster tournament. Whoever hits behind Bonds will have plenty of RBI opportunities. His defense is terrible, though, and don't expect Bonds to test his gimpy legs chasing down doubles in the gap.

Team USA strangely selected 3 left fielders and 3 center fielders, but no right fielders. Vernon Wells and Lance Berkman are talented enough to slide over to the right side. Johnny Damon will be a severe liability in center, and I expect him to be substituted out in the late innings in favor of Wells. I don't see Junior Griffey seeing much playing time, though.

Clemens must be the sentimental #1 starter, but the face of USA Baseball should be Mr. Electric, Dontrelle Willis. This Tournament is as much about marketing as it is about promoting international goodwill, and no player in baseball is as interesting or appealing as Willis. Halladay gets the pick over Tim Hudson as the #3 guy, and should Team USA ever find itself in need of a #4 starter, Sabathia should be the guy over Andy Pettite and Jake Peavy (though Peavy is nails).

2006-01-08T12:32:00.000-08:00

NFL Mock Draft - 1st Ten Picks

Probable Pick – Reggie Bush, HB, USC
Logical Pick – D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
Hail Mary Pick – Vince Young, QB, Texas
With Dominique Davis and Vernand Morrency already in the backfield, picking Bush makes no sense for a depleted Texans roster that has the worst O-line in football. However, unless they trade down, the Texans will pick Reggie.

Probable Pick – Matt Leinart, QB, USC
Logical Pick – Vince Young
Hail Mary Pick – Matt Leinart
The Saints are one of the worst run franchises in all of sports, and they clearly have an image problem. My solution…pick Vince Young to be your franchise QB, but it looks like they are going to go with the overrated Leinart.

Probable Pick – Vince Young
Logical Pick – D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Hail Mary Pick – D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Unlike many of the other bad teams this season, the Titans have a lot of hope going into the 2006 season. They are young at many positions, and they still have one of the best coaches in football in Jeff Fischer. Next move? Pick Steve McNair’s successor, Vince Young.

Probable Pick – D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Logical Pick – D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Hail Mary Pick – DeAngelo Williams, HB, Memphis
Another depleted team with a horrible line, the Jets are in dire need of a franchise tackle. So it as simple as this…just pick…D’Brickashaw. However, the Jets have been known to make a surprising move, and with Curtis Martin on the downside of his career, DeAngelo Williams would be a decent fit.

Probable Pick – A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State
Logical Pick – A.J. Hawk
Hail Mary Pick – Mario Williams, DE, NC State
Over the last decade, the Packers have been known for having a solid defense. That image went away last year, and the Pack are now in need of a big time player that can help them right away. Enter A.J. Hawk.

Probable Pick – Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
Logical Pick – Mario Williams
Hail Mary Pick – Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
The Raiders are the dumbest team in America, and regardless of whom they draft, that won’t change. Charles Woodson, for all his prestige, never seems to play, and even though the other corners are young, they clearly are not starting corners in the NFL.

Probable Pick – Mario Williams
Logical Pick – Mario Williams
Hail Mary Pick – Jonathan Scott, OT, Texas
Niners need more…well…talent! It is really as simple as that. Mario Williams has a lot of talent…take him!

Probable Pick – Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
Logical Pick – Haloti Ngata
Hail Mary Pick – Jonathan Scott
Since the departure of Pat Williams, the Bills have been weak in the middle of their defense. Haloti Ngata is the biggest and baddest ugly in the draft, and he is a perfect fit in the big ugly city of Buffalo.

Probable Pick – Jonathan Scott
Logical Pick – Jonathan Scott
Hail Mary Pick – Jay Cutler
Off-season agenda for Lions (should be): 1. FIRE Matt Millen 2. Sign a veteran QB that can throw a football 3. Pick the second best OL in the draft, Jonathan Scott

Probable Pick – DeAngelo Williams
Logical Pick – Jay Cutler
Hail Mary Pick – Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn
Many people in Arizona believe J.J. Arrington is not the answer at RB. I would like to argue that, but the G.M. of the Cards must know more than me…right? I say solve your QB situation by selecting the underrated Jay Cutler.

Marlins to Become Salmon?

2006-01-07T09:15:00.000-08:00

The Associated Press reports today that executives with the Florida Marlins are planning to meet next week with Portland, Oregon, officials to discuss potential relocation. The Marlins' lease expires after 2007.

Portland is a natural next expansion destination for MLB. It represents the nation's 25th largest metropolitan area, soon to eclipse Cincinnati and Cleveland, and is the next largest market without a professional baseball team (excluding Riverside/San Bernardino, California, which benefits from its proximity to the Angels, Dodgers, and Padres). The summer climate is unmatched. The urban center is prime: strong local economy with high wage employers, a relatively dense downtown residential core, great public transportation, and multiple potential sites for a city ballpark. One of baseball's greatest gaffes of the last 30 years has been the abandonment of urban cores in favor of sprawling, suburban stadiums, including the current situation in South Florida. Baseball is best when played in neighborhoods, where they become a transformative fabric to a city - see, for example, Wrigley Field, Petco Park, Coors Field, SBC, and Camden Yards. Add a downtown stadium to Portland, either by remodeling the existing PGE Park or constructing something new in east Portland, and fans will fill the park nightly.

I also am a huge fan of increasing the number of teams to the west coast. More teams out west mean more regional games to enjoy, less travel for players, and more media attention to the west coast's other teams. Also, MLB is currently unbalanced - with only 4 teams in the AL West, but 6 in the NL Central (thanks to a disinterested Bud Selig moving his Brewers from the AL to the NL and messing everything up), creating a 14-16 team split between the two leagues. If the Marlins move west, would they also join the AL West, and if so, could the Pirates slide from the Central to the East to balance the divisions?

While MLB should be in Portland, I am not convinced the Marlins should be out of South Florida. No doubt the team has had trouble begging for its state-funded welfare to build a new stadium. But this team has already won 2 world championships - pretty tough to punish fans by taking a once great team across the country. What the Marlins should do is open up their own wallet (a la the Giants) and build a stadium in downtown Miami - little Havana, central business district, or even in South Beach - all would be great locations. While it is always nice to live off the government dole, if I were running the business I would rather have tax breaks (are milder form of welfare) and finance the stadium myself. There is a fortune just waiting to be made in Miami.

Baseball needs to stay in South Florida. Portland surely is a worth candidate, however, and I will not give up on baseball in one of my favorite towns. I will be writing soon about my proposal to expand MLB from 30 to 32 teams, realigning the divisions, and adding an additional round to the playoffs.

NFL 2006 Mock Draft v.1 1-5

2006-01-01T18:39:00.000-08:00

Because man cannot live on baseball alone, and because I have just suffered through the lowly 49ers overtime victory over the lowlier Texans, I thought I would try my hand at projecting the first 5 picks of April's NFL draft.

1. Houston Texans select Reggie Bush, the fine running back from the 619 now gracing the south central Los Angeles campus of USC. Had Chris Brown, the Texans place kicker, been able to convert a 31 yarder late in the fourth quarter, the Texans probably would have picked third behind New Orleans and San Francisco, and Alex Smith could have been reunited with his high school teammate, Mr. Heisman Reggie Bush. Instead, another Bush returns to Texas.

2. New Orleans Saints select Matt Leinart, USC's outstanding quarterback and probably the best overall professional prospect in the draft. I love Reggie Bush's game - speed, enthusiasm, daring, and just flat out skills. I worry about his smaller frame, but ultimately expect him to bulk up during his off season training with his bud, LT, from the Thunderbolts. But the NFL is a quarterback's league - no one wins without a great quarterback (with all due respect to Trent Dilfer's magical run with the Baltimore Ravens in 2001). Leinart is the best QB prospect since Carson Palmer. It is funny how in many ways, San Francisco has been snake bitten with the draft - last year they had the top overall pick, and selected Alex Smith after Leinart returned for his senior season. This year, they were one loss away from Reggie Bush, but their overtime victory over the Texans following Chris Brown's wide right field goal attempt cost them the chance to draft the most exciting player from this year's draft, Reggie Bush.

3. Tennessee Titans select Vince Young. Most scouting sites rate Virginia tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson as the third overall prospect in the draft. No doubt the Brick is a house, and the Titans' offensive line could use the upgrade at left tackle from the veteran Brad Hopkins and the young Michael Roos. The Titans need help all over though, so I would not be at all surprised to see Tennessee trade down from this pick to a team interested in either Ferguson, Young, or Memphis running back DeAngelo Williams. If they keep the pick, a franchise looking for a little excitement and a need to rebuild will draft Vince Young and either re-work Steve McNair's crazy $50 million option bonus due this offseason, or watch McNair leave for less green pastures (New York Jets perhaps?). Billy Volek and Matt Mauck, Tennessee's current backup QBs, just will not put butts in the seats or the Titans on prime time like Vince Young could. I think Young will probably be less Donovan McNabb and more Tony Banks, but a chance worth taking nonetheless.

4. New York Jets select Virginia tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Though they probably prefer a skill position player to upgrade the RB or WR positions, I expect the Jets to select the both the best overall player on the board and one capable of filling a huge need for the team. Ferguson will be paired with LT Adrian Jones to form a young, talented offensive tackle tandem. A big question remains what the Jets do behind center next year, and I expect them to cut ties with Chad Pennington, too expensive and too fragile, sign a veteran for a year or two, and select a QB from lower in the draft. Another option would be for the Jets to trade down to select DeAngelo Williams.

5. Green Bay Packers select A.J. Hawk, outside linebacker for Ohio State University. The big question for the Packers remains the future of Brett Favre, and if he returns, he will want additional playmakers on offense, as well as help on the offensive line. But the Packers have neglected their defense for too long, and could use a little more toughness to smack around the Bears' three headed monster of Thomas Jones-Cedric Benson-Adrian Peterson, as well as the rest of the backs in the Black and Blue division. A midwest kid goes to a midwest team, and all will seem right in Wisconsin for a few months, until the Packers watch Demeco Ryans, the Alabama 'backer, play like Brian Urlacher for the San Francisco 49ers, and the Milwaukee talk radio will go nuts for passing on him.

Bonus Picks: San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Raiders finished with the same lousy record of 4-12, but at the time of publication, the draft order could not be determined due to the potential changes in the tiebreaker strength of schedule measure.

Regardless of who picks where, I expect both teams to upgrade on defense. The 49ers will be saying goodbye to Julian Peterson and likely Derek Smith. With so much talent at the top of the draft at the LB position, expect the team to select Demeco Ryans if he is still on the board. Ryans will be the best linebacker from this talented draft class, even better than A.J. Hawk or Chad Greenway.

The Raiders appear set at running back (LaMont Jordan) and wide receiver (Randy Moss and Jerry Porter). They, too, could benefit from improving the talent in the front seven, and I like Mario Williams, the N.C. State defensive end, Michael Huff, the Texas end, and Chad Greenway out of Iowa. The Raiders could also use the pick on the top corner in the draft, Virginia Tech's Jimmy Williams, especially considering Charles Woodson likely played his last game in the silver and black.

Artest to the Giants?

2005-12-29T15:17:00.000-08:00

In light of the most recent lefty-righty posts, I'm wondering whether the Giants ought to acquire Ron Artest (or Terrell Owens) to put somewhere in the outfield; that is, in the way way out field. Or are they too young for Brian Sabean and his Crue?

Artest in Oakland is, ironically, a good fit!

2005-12-29T02:09:00.000-08:00

Ron Artest = unpredictable, flaky, selfish, immature...not an attractive personality for the Golden State Wariors, right?

Wrong. Oakland is right now the hotbed for talented athletic wackjobs, with Randy Moss and now Milton Bradley residing across the bay. Presently, the Warriors are a solid, exciting, and no-nonsense team, and it looks as though they will make the NBA playoffs for the first time in 13 (or more?) years. But lets face it, they might be nice, but its hard to see many of their current players evolving into superstars or even much better players than they already are, with maybe the exception of Pietrus, Diogu, and Biedrins. The warriors need a spark, and I think Artest is a chance worth taking! Sure, he may get in the occasional fist fight with the drunk fatso in the third row at Arco Arena or the Staples Center, and sure, he may make a ridiculous and offensive statement once in awhile...but his numbers are incredible and his tenacity is extremely valuabe to any team, let alone a team in the warriors that lack that physical nature that championship teams posess. I see Artest as possibly the type of acquisition that Rasheed Wallace was for the Pistons a couple of years ago. That Pistons team was solid, but they were not ready to contend for a championship just yet. After bringing in Wallace, who at the time was considered the worst attitude in the NBA, the Pistons came together as one and won the NBA title. I think a package like Biedrins and Dunleavy for Artest may be enough, and i think adding a player like Artest would give the Wariors a legitimate shot in the playoffs.

Giants Projected Lineup v.1

2005-12-23T11:02:00.000-08:00

Stop me if you have heard this already - the Giants are playing for 2006, not 2008.

It's a good thing, too, because by 2008 half the Giants roster will be eligible to collect their MLB pension and Social Security benefits.

The 2006 Giants will be old. They will be defensively challenged - besides catcher Mike Matheny and shortstop Omar Vizquel, every position player grades below average, and some are down right awful, including second baseman Ray Durham, third baseman Pedro Feliz, and left fielder Barry Bonds.

Given the spacious outfield gaps of PacBell/SBC/AT&Whatever corporate name here, the Giants poor outfield defense will allow more runners than it should, and the pitching staff, which lacks a bona fide strikeout pitcher, will suffer.

The offense will be at a loss to create runs, instead presenting a plodding station-to-station type offense dependent upon the long ball to score runs.

My 2006 Giants projected lineup v.1:

1. Randy Winn (S) CF
2. Omar Vizquel (S) SS
3. Pedro Feliz (R) 3B
4. Barry Lamar Bonds (L) LF
5. Moises Alou (R) RF
6. Ray Durham (S) 2B
7. Lance Niekro (R) 1B
8. Mike Matheny (R) C

The obvious beneficiary is the young, hot prospect Pedro Feliz, who inherits the most favored nation status, also known as the player hitting in front of Barry Bonds. Of course, Feliz will turn 31 this year, which still qualifies him to be considered a young prospect according to Brian Sabean years, which is like a reverse dog years calendar for prospects.

Since Feliz made his debut back in May of 2000 (when Bill Clinton was still President), he has been touted as the team's top young talent ready to anchor third base for the Giants for many years. Over the past 2 years alone, he shuffled across 5 positions, and forced to share time with albatross Edgar Alfonzo, whom Sabean inexcusably signed for a 4 year contract in 2003. Alfonzo finally has been traded to the the Angels Angels of Anaheim in exchange for another top young prospect, Steve Finley, a player just hitting his prime, only 10 years Feliz's senior.

Fans have high hopes, and unrealistic expectations, for leadoff hitter Randy Wynn. Wynn is a career .288 hitter, and has never hit above .300 anywhere in his career but his brief stint with Saint Francis last year, when he hit .359 in 58 games for the Gigantes. Expect his production to lapse to a more predictable .275 to .290 average, and hope his OBP matches his career .346, which is not bad considering the Yankees are paying Johnny Damon $13 million per for the next 4 years for his .353 OBP.

Bonds may be the straw that stirs the Giants drink, but if the team fails to get production from Feliz this year, the team that is made for the 2006 playoffs will fall well short of the Dodgers and Padres in its chase for the NL West title.

A's Projected Lineup v.1

2005-12-19T16:04:00.000-08:00

With the recent acquisition of Milton Bradley from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ken Macha now has a thumper to protect Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. The trio of Scott Hatteberg, Dan Johnson, and Bobby Kielty failed to earn the respect of opposing pitchers, and too often Chavez was pitched around. Bradley stretches the lineup, settling nicely in the #5 spot, providing respectable power and average numbers from both sides of the plate. When he is not playing any of the outfield positions, I expect him to spend some time in the DH role.

Because Macha always likes to hear my $.02, here is my 2006 A's projected lineup (v.1):

1. Mark Ellis (R) 2B
2. Mark Kotsay (L) CF
3. Bobby Crosby (R) SS
4. Eric Chavez (L) 3B
5. Milton Bradley (S) DH
6. Nick Johnson (L) 1B
7. Jay Payton (R) LF
8. Nicholas Thompson Swisher (S) RF
9. Jason Kendall (R)

Why Kendall in the #9 spot, especially when he hit at or near the top of the order last year? A number of reasons.

He just does not consistently hit for a high enough average anymore. He hit .271 last year, and I expect about the same production in 2006.

He does not have any pop left in the bat to be relied upon as a run producer, or juice in the legs to be considered a table setter. He had 601 ABs last year, and hit 0 HRs, 28 2Bs, 1 3B, and a grand total of 58 RBIs.

But he can bunt, hit and run, take a pitch or 3, work the count, put the ball in play and avoid striking out. He hits into too many double plays to be a #2 hitter, but settles in fine at the #9 position.

Where else would you put him? Payton is far more productive, and a much bigger threat at the plate from the right side. Also, Macha, like Beane, and like myself, appreciate balance in the lineup, to force opposing managers to potentially use more relievers than necessary later in the ball game.

Lefty 401(k) Savings Plan

2005-12-17T18:25:00.000-08:00

Billy Beane and Jim Hendry would be wise to hold Barry Zito and Corey Patterson. By now, each knows he is unable to obtain a fair return in any trade for Zito, either because the market overvalues Zito or undervalues Patterson.

Clubs have been reluctant to offer the Athletics the top tier of prospects that Zito rightly (or leftly) deserves: an A-level starting pitcher, A-level position player (2B or OF), and 2 B-level prospects (middle relief or potential #4 starter, utility fielder).

On the other hand, clubs have been too eager to offer junk #4 outfielders (Kevin Mench anyone?) or bad contract vets in exchange for Patterson. Without question, Patterson struggled last year, especially with his ability to put the bat on the ball. Most troubling to me was Corey taking himself out of at-bats.

But I am still a believer in Patterson. And Jim Hendry should be, too.

I have long been a proponent of switching Patterson to right field and dropping him to #6 or #7 in the lineup. My mock lineups include the shining Matt Murton in left, the dynamic Felix Pie in center, and the enigmatic Patterson in right. The recent acquisition of Juan Pierre should only make Patterson's move to right that much easier in the short run. And when Pie is ready mid season or in 2007, give him CF, move Pierre to right, and let Patterson be the 4th OF player, splitting with Murton against certain righties, and showcasing awesome speed off the bench.

My reasons are plain:

1. He is still young. And talented. And fast. And can mash.
2. He is not a leadoff hitter, and never will be. Shame on the Cubs for trying to convert Corey from Mighty-Might to Mighty-Flight.
3. He is lefthanded. The Cubs desperately need left-handed protection for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramizez, in a lineup that is too heavily dominated by righties already.
4. He is an above average CF, and will be even better defensively in RF.
5. Given the freedom to be a run producer, rather than a table setter, Patterson will hit 20-25 home runs, drive in 80 to 90 RBIs, and hit a respectable .265-280. That's better than anything the Cubs could buy on the market right now.
6. Corey will be just as good as Reggie Sanders or Andrew Jones at this stage in their careers. I'll take that kind of production.
7. Corey came up through the system. Teams need to continue to develop and promote from within to give an incentive to its farm talent that they, too, have a chance to make the show.

One has to be a realist when it comes to Patterson. He is not a .330 hitter (yet), and he will never be a Lou Brock or Vince Coleman type player. I'll take the strikeouts with Corey if he'll give me reliable production in the lower half of the lineup, and solid defensive production in RF.

Beane and Hendry would be wise to hang on to these players for the first half of the 2006 season. Trading them now will not give the clubs fair market value in return. Questions remain whether Oakland can retain Zito long term, and whether Patterson will ever be a disciplined hitter. But being a saver requires patience to let the market or talent develop. My advice on Zito and Patterson: hold for now, and expect to win in 2006

The Status of the A's and Barry Zito

2005-12-11T18:03:00.000-08:00

Now that the A's have brought in Esteban Loiza to a generous tone of 3 years and 21 million, the A's should trade Barry Zito. Of course, I think the guy is a top young arm, one the best lefties in baseball, and a great personality to have on your team, but because of what the A's already have at starting pitcher, namely Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Loiza, and Kirk Saarloos (not to mention Dan Meyer), trading Zito makes sense.

Now that A.J. Burnett, who has a lifetime record of 49-50, received 55 million for five years from the Blue Jays, which I'm sure is a team that we will discuss later, I think it is clear that the A's wouldn't be able to pay Zito what he will demand, and can you blame them? I mean if Burnett is going to get 11 million a year for 5 years, it seems reasonable to assume that Zito could get as much as 70 million for 5 years, which would come out to 14 million a year. I mean compare Zito's 86-53 W/L record to Burnett’s sub .500 record, and I think it's a no-brainer that the A's should trade Zito to a team like the Orioles, Dodgers, Indians, Phillies, Mets, or any other team drooling for a frontline starting pitcher, and get back not only young talent but a veteran slugger, like say Pat Burrell, Jeff Kent, or Cliff Floyd?

Now because I consider myself the heir apparent to Billy Beane, I think two things might keep Billy from unloading Zito. First, many teams seem unwilling to part with their young talent, meaning that the A's might have to trade Zito for less than equal value. This might make Billy more inclined to just keep Zito for the season, rather than trade him for players that may never see the field for the A's now or in the future. The second thing may be that after about 5 seasons of the A's falling short of the World Series, Beane and ownership want to win a title. Therefore, keeping Zito for the 06 season and trying to win now may make sense, whether or not they can sign him in the next off-season.

The Soriano Deal

2005-12-11T17:37:00.000-08:00

Alphonso Soriano to to the Washington Nationals is now, without question, the biggest and yet most underrated move of the offseason. Once again, it mystifies me that my San Francisco Giants wouldn't at least dangle some young guys like Merkin Valdez, Brad Hennesey, Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, David Aardsma, or Boof Bonzer (Wait...scratch most of those names!Thanks Mr Sabean)

Anyways, this move gives the Nats everything they missed last year. They get star power, speed on the bases, and youth in the lineup. Soriano is without question one of the 10 best players in all of baseball, and for National G.M. Jim Bowden to get him for just Wilkerson, Termell Sledge (love the name), and a minor leaguepitcher?! That is quite a steal, and if they are able to sign him either this year or next offseason to a long-term deal, then consider this one of best trades ever! This obviously sounds sensationalist, but Soriano still hasn't reached his peak, and he can definitely be the franchise player the Nats have been missing, much like Baron Davis has been for the Golden State Warriors (crossing the sport barrier of
course). And I wouldn't worry about Soriano's reluctance to play the outfield, because I think he will eventually end up playing 2nd base for the Nats on Opening Day, meaning that Jose Vidro will either have to switch positions or get traded.

I won't be so bold as to say that the Nats will make the playoffs just yet, but they are only one or two serviceable starters away, and they seem to have the resources to make that happen. Hmmmm...Matt Morris or Kevin Millwood would be nice fits in the District Capital, and for their own good, please don't sign Jarrod Washburn! If they can't get someone like that, a journeyman like Scott Elarton, Pedro Astacio, or Jose Lima would be fine.

Right now, if I had to rank the National League teams by strength of team, the Nationals would be in my top 5, along with the Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies, but I would be open to the opinions of others about what their top 5 looks like right now, because the NL is full of parity!

The Brain of The Game

2005-12-06T05:18:00.000-08:00

Today, specialists in Palo Alto and in Los Altos, California successfully cloned baseball's most creative, analytical, and, dare we say, ruthless mind. Now, rather than a one-team focus (in a small market no less), The Brain is available to scope out everything everywhere in The Game (and in other sports as well), as opportunities and needs arise.

Of course, The Brain features both instinctive and analytical approaches. For this reason, Gamers who come for insights will be able to pick the approach with which they feel most comfortable. Even better, wait until The Brain reaches its own synthesis and, KAZAAM, you'll have the best ideas possible.

Beginning on Monday, December 12th, the Brain will be in position, fully networked with all news and insider sources, and, needless to say, operating at full power. All casual fans, serious fans, fantasy fans, agents, GMs, and, yes, team owners, are welcome. Let The Brain of the Game improve your grasp of all things Diamond-Related.